Betting Odds On Oscars
- Oscar's Grind is a popular betting system. It is generally played on even money bets with a specified winning goal. Like most betting system, it usually achieves this goal, but at the expense of a large loss when it doesn't. Like every betting system, it can not pass the test of time and will eventually show a net loss.
- The Oscars odds for Best Picture will look like this: Oscars Odds to Win Best Picture. Parasite (+220) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+900) Joker (+1200) The Irishman (+6600) Jojo Rabbit (+8000) Little Women (+10000) Ford v. Ferrari (+15000) Oscars betting sites will also offer an array of props.
Introduction
So, you should make sure to check out FanDuel for the Oscars betting odds that you need. Risk-free bet up to $1000 Go to FanDuel Sportsbook. The Promotion is only open to individuals who are at.
Oscar's Grind is a popular betting system. It is generally played on even money bets with a specified winning goal. Like most betting system, it usually achieves this goal, but at the expense of a large loss when it doesn't. Like every betting system, it can not pass the test of time and will eventually show a net loss.
Unlike most betting systems, like the Martingale, Labouchere or Fibonacci, the player will press his bets after winning, as opposed to losing. It also does not escalate the bet size as fast as these other systems, making it more of a 'grind' to achieve the winning goal. This causes the chances of reaching the winning goal to be less than more aggressive systems, but also allows the player to play longer and at a smaller average bet.
Overall, Oscar's Grind will tend to win in a streaky game and do badly in a choppy game.
Rules
The following is how to play Oscar's Grind on even money bets.
- The player will define his winning goal and bankroll.
- The player shall define his 'unit size' equal to his winning goal.
- The player makes a one-unit bet.
- If the player ties, then he repeats the same bet.
- Otherwise, if the last bet results is a win and the player has achieved his winning goal, then he walks away happy.
- Otherwise, if the player wins but has not achieved his winning goal, then he increases his bet size by one unit.*/**
- Otherwise, the player keeps the bet size the same.**
- The player bets.
- Go back to rule 4, until the player either achieves his winning goal or loses his entire bankroll.
*: If such an increase in bet would cause the player to overshoot his winning goal if he wins, then drop the bet size to whatever would result in achieving exactly the winning goal the next bet.
**: If the player does not have enough money to make the next bet, then drop the bet size to whatever money the player has left.
Simulation Results
To show what to expect from using Oscar's Grind, I wrote a simulation that followed the rules above, based on various bets and games. The simulation used a Mersenne Twister random number generator. For each simulation, the winning goal was ten units. I tested the simulation on the following bankrolls: 10, 25, 50, 100, 250, and 500 units.
The first simulation is based on betting the Player bet in baccarat. The simulation size is over 37 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge on the Player bet is 1.235%.
Baccarat Simulation — Player Bet
| Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability winning goal reached | 90.17% | 95.65% | 97.69% | 98.77% | 99.46% |
| Average number of bets | 4.736 | 5.697 | 6.230 | 6.646 | 7.067 |
| Average units bet | 6.626 | 10.609 | 14.557 | 19.609 | 28.650 |
| Expected win per session | -0.082 | -0.131 | -0.180 | -0.242 | -0.354 |
| Ratio money lost to Money bet | 1.234% | 1.235% | 1.236% | 1.235% | 1.235% |
The first simulation is based on betting the pass bet in craps. The simulation size is over 45 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge on the pass bet is 1.41%.
Craps Simulation — Pass Bet
| Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability winning goal reached | 90.14% | 95.63% | 97.67% | 98.76% | 99.45% |
| Average number of bets | 4.289 | 5.161 | 5.645 | 6.024 | 6.409 |
| Average units bet | 6.001 | 9.616 | 13.205 | 17.804 | 26.051 |
| Expected win per session | -0.085 | -0.136 | -0.187 | -0.252 | -0.368 |
| Ratio money lost to Money bet | 1.413% | 1.414% | 1.414% | 1.414% | 1.413% |
The next simulation is based on the don't pass bet in craps. The simulation size was over 43 billion sessions. As a reminder, the house edge on the don't pass bet is 1.364%.
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Craps Simulation — Don't Pass
Betting Odds On The Oscars 2019
| Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability winning goal reached | 90.14% | 95.64% | 97.68% | 98.76% | 99.46% |
| Average number of bets | 4.410 | 5.307 | 5.805 | 6.193 | 6.589 |
| Average units bet | 6.171 | 9.887 | 13.574 | 18.296 | 26.768 |
| Expected win per session | -0.084 | -0.135 | -0.185 | -0.250 | -0.365 |
| Ratio money lost to Money bet | 1.364% | 1.364% | 1.364% | 1.364% | 1.364% |
The next simulation is based on any even money bet in single-zero roulette. The simulation size was over 43 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge is 1/37 = 2.703%.
Roulette Simulation — Single Zero
| Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability winning goal reached | 89.40% | 95.11% | 97.29% | 98.49% | 99.28% |
| Average number of bets | 4.381 | 5.327 | 5.871 | 6.314 | 6.789 |
| Average units bet | 6.156 | 10.059 | 14.074 | 19.418 | 29.545 |
| Expected win per session | -0.166 | -0.272 | -0.380 | -0.525 | -0.799 |
| Ratio money lost to Money bet | 2.703% | 2.702% | 2.703% | 2.702% | 2.703% |
The next simulation is based on any even money bet in double-zero roulette. The simulation size was over 45 billion sessions. As a reminder, the theoretical house edge is 2/38 = 5.263%.
Roulette Simulation — Double Zero
| Statistic | 10 Units | 25 Units | 50 Units | 100 Units | 250 Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability winning goal reached | 87.81% | 93.93% | 96.39% | 97.81% | 98.81% |
| Average number of bets | 4.567 | 5.670 | 6.350 | 6.944 | 7.646 |
| Average units bet | 6.468 | 10.982 | 15.945 | 23.026 | 37.824 |
| Expected win per session | -0.340 | -0.578 | -0.839 | -1.212 | -1.991 |
| Ratio money lost to Money bet | 5.263% | 5.264% | 5.262% | 5.264% | 5.264% |
Video
Here is my video on Oscar's Grind.
Internal Links
- The Truth about Betting Systems.
- Labouchere betting system.
- Fibonacci betting system.
- D'Alembert betting system.
- Martingale betting system.
- Keefer roulette system.
External Links
Discussion about Oscar's Grind in my forum at Wizard of Vegas.
Written by: Michael Shackleford
The biggest Academy Awards category of the year is also the one most sportsbooks are offering for Oscar betting. Nine different New Jersey sportsbooks have odds up on the Oscar for Best Picture.
It is an interesting race, too, more wide open than most. The 2019 race does have a frontrunner but does not have a slam dunk. However, if Roma is the movie to beat, what is most unclear is which film is the movie to beat it. The major awards have gone to a range of films. Traditional indicators of what film will win point a number of different directions. Here is a look at what each of the eight nominees has going for and against it.
Current Best Picture odds
| Sportsbook | Roma | Green Book | The Favourite | BlackKklansman | A Star Is Born | Black Panther | Bohemian Rhapsody | Vice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -155 | +200 | +1000 | +1400 | +1000 | +800 | +1000 | +5000 |
| BetStarsNJ | -187.5 | +225 | +1100 | +1800 | +4000 | +2200 | +1400 | +10000 |
| FanDuel | -170 | +220 | +1600 | +2900 | +2000 | +1200 | +1400 | +10000 |
| Caesars | -175 | +200 | +1600 | +2000 | +4000 | +2500 | +1600 | +10000 |
| 888 | -155 | +200 | +1000 | +1400 | +1000 | +800 | +1000 | +10000 |
| SugarHouse | -155 | +200 | +1000 | +1400 | +1000 | +800 | +1000 | +5000 |
| Resorts | -200 | +250 | +1600 | +2500 | +5000 | +2800 | +2200 | +10000 |
| PointsBet | -200 | +225 | +1600 | +2800 | +2000 | +2400 | +1400 | +10000 |
| Golden Nugget | -200 | +250 | +1600 | +2500 | +5000 | +3300 | +2200 | +10000 |
| PlayMGM | -275 | +275 | +2000 | +2800 | +6600 | +2500 | +1600 | +10000 |
| William Hill | -180 | +200 | +1800 | +2200 | +1800 | +1200 | +1200 | +6000 |
| BetAmerica | -200 | +250 | +1600 | +2500 | +5000 | +2800 | +2200 | +10000 |
| Hard Rock | -200 | +240 | +1400 | +2200 | +4000 | +2800 | +2000 | +8000 |
Roma
Written and directed by Alfonso Cuarón (of Y Tu Mamá También, Children of Men, Gravity), Roma is a semi-autobiographical take on the filmmaker’s upbringing in Mexico City. Set in 1970, the film follows the life of a middle-class family and their live-in housekeeper (played by first-time actress Yalitza Aparicio). The Netflix-produced film received universal praise from critics and film enthusiasts for Cuarón’s screenplay, direction and cinematography.
Roma received 10 nominations at the Academy Awards, including:
- Best Picture
- Best Foreign Language Film
- Best Director
- Best Actress
- Best Supporting Actress
The film tied with The Favourite as the most-nominated film. Additionally, it is tied with 2000’s Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon for the most Oscar nominations ever received by a non-English language film.
Cuarón’s deeply personal film is a lock for Best Foreign Language Film. As for Best Picture, foreign films don’t have much luck in this category. In fact, Roma is only the fifth movie to be nominated for both categories in the same year. The previous four — Z,Life Is Beautiful, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, and Amour — won Best Foreign Language Film but not Best Picture.
Roma has a lot of history working against it, but if anyone can beat the odds, it’s Cuarón. He became the first Latin American director to win the Academy Award for Best Director with Gravity in 2014. And with its primary competition, Peter Farrelly’sGreen Book, losing steam as the season comes to an end, Cuarón’s black-and-white foreign language film has suddenly emerged as the frontrunner in the category.
Key awards for Roma
- Directors Guild of America: Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film
- Golden Globes: Best Foreign Language Film, Best Director
- National Board of Review: Top Ten Best Films of 2018
Green Book
In Peter Farrelly’s Green Book, Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises, Captain Fantastic) plays Tony “Lip” Vallelonga. He is an Italian-American bouncer tasked with driving African-American pianist Dr. Don Shirley (Mahershala Ali of Moonlight) through a concert tour in the Deep South.
The film received positive reviews from critics. Mortensen and Ali’s performances have been lauded as two of the best of the year. Green Book won the National Board of Review Award for Best Film of 2018 received numerous other accolades, including winning the Producers Guild of America Award for Best Theatrical Motion Picture and the Golden Globe Award for Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy. It also earned a solid five nominations at the Academy Awards:
- Best Picture
- Best Actor
- Best Supporting Actor
- Best Original Screenplay
- Best Film Editing
There’s a lot of bad juju on Green Book, however. While Ali is a lock for Best Supporting Actor, Shirley’s relatives condemned the film for its historical inaccuracies. There’s also the issue of Mortensen using a racist slur during a promotional panel discussion. Plus, there is the resurfacing of some anti-Muslim tweets by co-writer Nick Vallelonga, which may turn off Oscar voters.
Unless Black Panther pulls out a surprise win, it seems like this category is Roma’s to lose, with Green Book unable to capture anything more than first runner-up in a game where you either win or go home empty-handed.
Key awards for Green Book
Golden Globes: Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy, Best Supporting Actor, Best Screenplay
Producers Guild of America: Best Theatrical Motion Picture
Screen Actors Guild of America: Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
National Board of Review: Best Film, Best Actor
The Favourite
Directed by Yorgos Lanthimos (of The Lobster and The Killing of a Sacred Deer), The Favourite is set in the early 18th century and explores the relationship between two cousins (Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz) vying to be court favorites of Queen Anne (Olivia Colman).
The Favourite, recognized for its sharp writing and direction, strong performances, and gorgeous production design, won the Grand Jury Prize at the 75th Venice Film Festival. It went on to win 10 British Independent Film Awards. It was nominated for 10 Oscars, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, and two Best Supporting Actress nods, The Favourite ties with Alfonso Cuarón’s Roma as the most-nominated film of 2018.
The Favourite is a likely win for Best Original Screenplay, but Best Picture seems out of reach for the Greek filmmaker’s polarizing period piece.
Key awards for The Favourite
Golden Globes: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy (Olivia Colman)
Latest Betting Odds On Oscars 2020
BlacKkKlansman
Co-written and directed by Spike Lee (Do the Right Thing, Malcolm X, Chi-Raq), BlacKkKlansman is the filmmaker’s strongest, most soulful narrative work since 2002’s 25th Hour. Based on actual events, the film follows the first African-American detective in the Colorado Springs Police Department as he sets out to infiltrate and expose the local chapter of the Ku Klux Klan.
Praised for the strong performances of John David Washington and Adam Driver, as well as Lee’s writing and direction, BlacKkKlansman won the Grand Prix at the 2018 Cannes Film Festival and received six nominations at the 91st Academy Awards, including:
- Best Picture
- Best Director
- Best Adapted Screenplay
- Best Supporting Actor
- Best Film Editing
- Best Original Score
As it stands, BlacKkKlansman is a frontrunner in the Best Adapted Screenplay category, but middle-of-the-pack as far as Best Picture contenders go. After decades of making influential films, the Academy may decide now is the time to recognize Spike Lee with a Best Director trophy, but that seems like the only other category in which BlacKkKlansman stands a chance.
Key awards for BlacKkKlansman
While BlacKkKlansman has been nominated for awards by the Golden Globes, the Directors Guild of America, Producers Guild of America, and Screen Actors Guild, it has yet to score a major win.
A Star is Born
Co-written and directed by star Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born is the third remake of William A. Wellman’s 1937 film, which earned seven Academy Award nominations at the time. The 1954 adaptation, starring Judy Garland and James Mason, was nominated for six. And the 1976 version, starring Barbra Streisand and Kris Kristofferson, earned four. Between the three films, however, there are only two Oscars: Best Writing (Original Story) in 1938 and Best Original Song in 1977.
A Star is Born follows a hard-drinking blues musician (Cooper) who discovers and falls in love with a talented young singer-songwriter (Lady Gaga). The film was selected by the National Board of Review as one of the Top 10 Films of 2018 and earned five Golden Globe nominations and eight Oscar nods, including:
- Best Picture
- Best Actor
- Best Actress
- Best Supporting Actor
- Best Original Song
If history is any indication, Cooper’s adaptation will come up short in all the major categories, but it’s guaranteed to take home at least one Oscar – Best Song for “Shallow” written by Lady Gaga with Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, and Andrew Wyatt.
Key awards for A Star is Born
Golden Globes: Best Original Song
National Board of Review: Top Ten Best Films of 2018, Best Actress, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor
Black Panther
Co-written and directed by Ryan Coogler (of Fruitvale Station, Creed), Black Panther is the 18th entry in Marvel’s shared cinematic universe and the first MCU movie to feature a black superhero as the title character. Upon its release, the film received widespread acclaim for its direction, visual effects, costume design, production design, and strong performances from the film’s stellar ensemble.
Black Panther became the ninth-highest-grossing film of all time with over $1.35 billion worldwide, breaking numerous box office records in the process. It’s easily the most popular film to be nominated for Best Picture this year. It’s also the first superhero film ever to receive such a nomination. In total, The film racked up seven nominations at the Academy Awards, three nominations at the Golden Globe Awards, and two wins at the Screen Actors Guild Awards.
If there’s a huge surprise in store at this year’s Oscar ceremony, it’s a Black Panther win for Best Picture. DraftKings and SugarHouse currently have Coogler’s superhero flick at +2500 if you’re looking for some action.
Key awards for Black Panther
Screen Actors Guild of America: Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
National Board of Review: Top Ten Best Films of 2018
Bohemian Rhapsody
Directed by Bryan Singer (The Usual Suspects, X-Men), Bohemian Rhapsodyfollows Freddie Mercury’s life from joining the band Queen in 1970 to their 1985 Live Aid performance at Wembley Stadium. The film stars Rami Malek (USA Network’sMr. Robot) as Mercury with Lucy Boynton, Gwilym Lee, Ben Hardy and Joseph Mazzello in supporting roles.
Bohemian Rhapsody received five Oscar nominations, including Best Picture and Best Actor for Malek. The film won Best Motion Picture – Drama at the Golden Globes and was nominated for the Producers Guild of America Award for Best Theatrical Motion Picture. Malek also won the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild Award for Best Actor.
Like Green Book, Bohemian Rhapsody is a controversial pick for Best Picture for its historical inaccuracies surrounding not only the formation of the legendary rock band but Mercury’s relationships; glossing over facts to make a more dramatic narrative. And then there’s Singer, who has been accused of sexual assault and misconduct by numerous men.
Needless to say, the odds aren’t looking good for the Queen biopic. Malek will likely take home the Best Actor trophy, but it’s hard to imagine Singer’s film winning the big prize. DraftKings and SugarHouse currently have Bohemian Rhapsody at +2500.
Key awards for Bohemian Rhapsody
Golden Globes: Best Motion Picture – Drama, Best Actor – Drama
Screen Actors Guild: Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Vice
Written and directed by Adam McKay (The Big Short, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy), Vice follows Dick Cheney on his path to becoming the most powerful Vice President of the United States in history. The film features an incredible, transformative lead performance from Christian Bale, who gained 46 pounds to play Cheney, and an equally impressive ensemble featuring Amy Adams, Steve Carell, Sam Rockwell, and Tyler Perry.
Despite a lukewarm reception by critics, McKay’s film received numerous nominations, including eight at the Academy Awards, a leading six at the Golden Globe Awards (one win), and six at the 72nd British Academy Film Awards. Unfortunately for McKay and crew, Vice is currently at the bottom of the heap when it comes to Best Picture contenders. Resorts Casino sportsbook has it at a staggering +8000, making it the very definition of a longshot.
Key awards for Vice
Golden Globes: Best Actor – Motion Picture Musical or Comedy (Christian Bale)